If you’re a Social Security beneficiary, October 15, 2025 is a date to note carefully. That’s when the Social Security Administration (SSA) will release the official Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026—the annual increase that protects benefits against inflation.
This update directly affects the retirement income of tens of millions across the U.S., dictating how much you’ll receive beginning January.
Understanding the COLA Announcement Process
Your COLA is calculated using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners & Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Here’s how SSA determines COLA:
- SSA averages CPI-W for the third quarter—July, August, and September.
- It compares that to the average CPI-W of the third quarter from the prior year.
- The percentage increase becomes your COLA.
Expect the 2026 COLA official number on October 15, which will base future benefits on the latest inflation measure.
Why the October 15 Date Matters
This date is the first opportunity to know whether your Social Security benefits will increase next year—and by how much. The announced COLA directly impacts your January 2026 payment, giving you time to adjust budgets, tax plans, and health care costs accordingly.
Projected COLA and Recent Trends
| Year | COLA |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
Current projections suggest the 2026 COLA may land around 2.6%–2.7%, reflecting moderate inflation trends.
Limitations of the CPI-W Measure
While CPI-W is the long-standing standard, there are concerns it doesn’t fully reflect senior-specific expenses:
- Healthcare costs, including drugs and long-term care, are often underweighted.
- A better measure, CPI-E, focuses on elderly expenses but is not used for COLA.
- Experts estimate beneficiaries have lost around 30% of purchasing power since 2000 due to these discrepancies and rising costs.
What to Do Between Now and October 15
To prepare for the new COLA:
- Track CPI-W trends through summer into September to estimate your potential raise.
- Monitor your My Social Security account for the official notice after the SSA announces the update.
- Adjust your 2026 budget to account for changes in Medicare premiums or other fixed costs.
Be cautious—SSA will not call or email you to request updates to bank or personal information. Be alert to scams.
October 15, 2025 is a critical date for Social Security beneficiaries. The release of the 2026 COLA will determine how much your benefits rise in the face of inflation.
Understanding how COLA is calculated—and its limitations—helps you plan for your future. Stay informed, monitor your account, and prepare for the financial changes ahead.
FAQs
Why is October 15 so important?
That’s when SSA will announce the 2026 COLA, which determines how much Social Security benefits will increase starting January 2026.
Can COLA ever be zero?
Yes. If inflation stalls or falls (as reflected in CPI-W), there may be no COLA. This happened in years like 2010, 2011, and 2016.
What if my Medicare Part B premium goes up in 2026?
If Medicare premiums increase sharply, they could offset your entire COLA increase—many projections estimate this may occur, so plan accordingly.